I’ve recently been watching piqqem.com wondering if it is worth doing this type of thing on our own website.
Piqqem gets people to vote on whether they think a companies shares will increase or decrease because they have better prospects. The belief is that the aggregate vote (the wisdom of the crowd) will show the probable direction of the shares.
Unfortunately, after about 6 months watching I can’t help but think the concept misses somewhat. Off the latest newsletter I tested the latest ‘wisdom’ against the movements of the share market. FAIL.
The share market itself is the ultimate wisdom of the crowd (right or wrong). This is because you have to front up with the cash to participate. You put your money where your wisdom is.
Piqqem is a great idea with a poor result. I only hope we find a way of looking back in 2, 3 or 10 years time and find out the piqqem voters where right to see some value in it. Because they definitely don’t reflect the current market sentiment. Which means they don’t participate in the real test of their wisdom.
So this is another example of an internet capability that can be very misused. They’re just wondering’s by wannabe’s.
Tags: http://www.piqqem.com/, wisdom of crowds, wondering's by wannabes
June 28, 2009 at 7:47 am
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June 28, 2009 at 7:48 am
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June 30, 2009 at 9:04 pm
I have to disagree with your analysis regarding the predictive nature of Piqqem. For example, I looked at the sentiment of ORCL on 5/31 and noticed it increased by 15% going into ORCL’s earnings release after market close on 6/23. The 15% increase in sentiment predicted a 4.5% earning upside surprise and a $1.39 increase in share price on 6/24. http://www.piqqem.com/equities/ORCL
I also disagree that the stock market captures all relevant information thru the quantity demanded/quantity supplied pricing mechanism – information exists that can be valuable to investors from people not actively ‘moving’ the market.
June 30, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Jett you should probably have identified yourself as CEO of piqqem but thank you for engaging in discussion. http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/piqqem-crowdsourcing-stock-picks/.
It is good there is some success in the model. It’s just that I have seen none so far from the stocks I have followed.
As to whether crowd sourcing is a more efficient reflection than the stock market, for me it goes back to an Anthony Robbins quote “.. a real decision is measured by the fact that you’ve taken new action. If there’s no action, you haven’t truly decided”.
So if someone isn’t prepared to put there money where their mouth is they are not part of the market. Ipso facto there opinion isn’t relevant.